US core PCE inflation cools to 3% in August, undershooting forecasts and shaping Fed outlook

by VT Markets
/
Sep 30, 2026

US core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation eased to 3% year on year in August. That compared with market expectations of 3.3%, pointing to a softer underlying price trend than forecast.

Downside Surprise Versus Consensus

The reading marks a downside surprise versus consensus and may influence the near-term outlook for US monetary policy.

Fed’s Preferred Inflation Gauge

Core PCE is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, and the August print puts it closer to the central bank’s longer-run objective than earlier in the cycle.

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