Macro Data To Set Market Tone
Markets are set to take direction from a busy run of macro releases, with UK labour data due at 06:00 GMT on Tuesday. Unemployment for August is forecast to hold at 4.9%, while September claimants are expected to fall to 19,400 from 27,800, a combination that could still move sterling if outcomes diverge. UK inflation follows at 06:00 GMT on Wednesday, with September seen rising from 3.1% to 3.4%. Japan’s inflation print lands at 23:30 GMT on Thursday, and is expected to accelerate to 2.3% from 1.9%, before Friday’s flash purchasing managers’ indices, including German manufacturing at 53.5 versus an expected 0.4-point drop.
Friday also brings UK flash PMIs at 08:30 GMT, with manufacturing seen at 51.7 versus 51.9 and services at 51.8 versus 52.1; both remain above the 50 threshold cited in the source.
Commodities And Market Technicals
In crude, prices have pulled back from monthly highs as Middle East supply risks clash with recovering flows, with US officials putting Persian Gulf crude transit at about 80% of pre-war levels; spot is around $98, above $95 (23.6% Fibonacci), with resistance at $100 and $101, while $91 and $88 (50% Fibonacci) sit below. Gold is around $4,170 per ounce, with markets assigning a 15% chance of a quarter-point Fed increase; technically it is holding near $4,130 (78.6%), below $4,250 (61.8%), with $4,330 and $4,000 as the next markers.
