Canadian CPI is expected to tick up to 3.2% year-on-year in September, a 0.1 percentage point increase, with prices rising 0.2% month-on-month. The move is linked to energy, including gasoline, and would leave headline inflation further above the target range.
Core Inflation Measures Remain Subdued
Core measures are forecast to remain subdued. CPI-trim is seen at 1.9% year-on-year, while the weighted median is also projected at 1.9% after a 0.1 percentage point dip, taking the CPI-trim/median gauge back to its 2026 lows. However, three-month core inflation rates at 2.7% point to firmer momentum; even so, limited pass-through from higher oil prices and softer labour-market conditions are expected to temper the Bank of Canada’s reaction, despite the likelihood of upgraded headline CPI forecasts in the October MPR.
