Canadian inflation figures and the Bank of Canada’s Q3 Business Outlook Survey due on Monday will be scrutinised for evidence that energy-driven price pressures are spreading through the economy. The releases are set to inform the BoC’s 28 October policy decision, as officials watch whether high oil prices extend beyond petrol into non-energy components or lift business and consumer inflation expectations.
Inflation and Energy-Driven Price Pressures
The inflation picture is being weighed against an economy described as improving but still soft. GDP growth is expected to slow in the second half of 2026 after a stronger Q2, while employment has fallen in both August and September; meanwhile, the jobless rate has held around 6.5% for the past three months after declining over the prior year. Against that mix of risks, the assessment points to the BoC remaining on hold through the rest of 2026.
