Gold (XAU/USD) stayed under pressure into the European session, hovering near its weekly low as traders watched for sustained acceptance below $4,100. A modest US Dollar rebound from a near three-week low, alongside inflation concerns linked to volatile oil, kept expectations of tighter US Federal Reserve policy in play. Crude swung sharply from an over one-month peak on Tuesday after renewed talk of US-Iran discussions, though reports of a near deal were disputed and Iranian officials reiterated conditions, including an end to hostilities and unfreezing assets. Separate comments on exercising sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz revived supply disruption fears, helping oil rebound from the weekly low.
Rate Expectations and Central Bank Decisions
Rate pricing remained central. CME Group’s FedWatch shows over a 90% probability of a December hike, while markets imply a 17% chance of a move at the next FOMC; the implied December 2027 rate is 4.64%, pointing to just under 75bp of additional tightening. Attention turns to the two-day FOMC meeting ending October 28 and the October 29 US PCE report, alongside decisions from the RBNZ, BoC, ECB and BoJ.
Technical Analysis: Key Gold Levels
Technically, gold failed at the 100-period EMA on the 4-hour chart near $4,175; MACD is -4.65 and RSI 39.16, with downside levels flagged at $4,066, then $4,000 and $3,943-$3,942.
