Gold (XAU/USD) extended losses for a third session on Wednesday, setting a fresh weekly low in Europe but staying within a two-week range as markets waited for US inflation data. The US CPI is due later today, followed by PPI on Thursday, while a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok on Friday is expected to shape expectations for the policy path and, by extension, direction in the USD and the non-yielding metal.
Monetary Policy and Geopolitical Factors
Rate expectations remain restrictive: the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows a nearly 90% probability of another hike at the December meeting, after hawkish FOMC remarks and concerns over energy-led price pressures. Crude climbed to a near two-week high on supply risks linked to Middle East conflict, including intensified Houthi-Saudi fighting and continued US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, sustaining a geopolitical risk premium.
Technical Landscape and Price Levels
The USD held below its best level since April 2025, offering some support, yet technicals still lean bearish: gold is just above the 78.6% Fibonacci level at $4,115, with MACD negative and RSI near 50. Resistance sits at the 100-period 4-hour SMA at $4,193, then $4,215-$4,220 and $4,238; further caps are $4,325, $4,412 and $4,519, while support is $4,115 and $3,957.83.
